Been noticing a lot recently that pirates we've come up on in the game have been counting their chickens before they hatched... Had a crew finish a skull fort before I arrived, and I could hear them taunting me on the island, "You sure you wanna do this? This won't end well for you." etc, etc... Minutes later they end up dead, sunk, and I find their stashed fort key hidden away in a bush....
Be humble - stay focused, and don't assume you've won anything until you've cashed that loot in... [End rant]